Queensland’s Energy Roadmap: Implications for Industry, Investors and Households
Queensland has released its new Energy Roadmap, a document that outlines how the state intends to meet its future energy needs while maintaining affordability and reliability. It arrives at a time of high tension in national climate and energy policy, and it takes an approach that differs sharply from earlier transition plans. That contrast is important because Queensland is central to the National Electricity Market, both as a major exporter of electricity and as the state with the highest rooftop solar penetration in Australia. For investors, understanding what this Roadmap changes, and what it does not, is essential.
According to the government, the Roadmap is a pragmatic plan focused on keeping energy costs down while ensuring the system remains reliable. The government argues that extending the operating lives of state owned coal assets and reducing reliance on new builds in the near term will lower system investment costs by 26 billion dollars to 2035, a saving it claims would otherwise have flowed through to household bills at roughly 1,035 dollars per year (1) The Roadmap itself repeats this estimate and positions coal as a stabilising force in a rapidly changing system (2)
The structure of the plan rests on a few core elements. First, the government confirms it will run state owned coal assets to their technical lives, with options to extend if required. Second, it allocates 1.6 billion dollars through an Electricity Maintenance Guarantee to ensure those coal, hydro and gas assets remain operational and safe . Third, it provides a relatively modest 400 million dollars to drive investment in new renewables, storage and gas firming, channelled through QIC’s Investor Gateway.
In essence, the Roadmap argues that using the assets Queensland already owns is the cheapest pathway to a stable energy system. It also argues that private capital should take the lead in building new renewables and storage, which the government sees as more efficient and more commercially disciplined than state driven megaprojects (this is true!)
Why This Matters for Queenslanders
We are told that Queenslanders care about two things above all else in energy policy. They want prices kept low, and they want the lights kept on. So as to be expected, this Roadmap is pitched directly at both of those concerns.
According to the Roadmap, Coal still supplies over 60 per cent of Queensland’s electricity needs. The state operates some of the youngest coal units in the National Electricity Market, and their ability to flex output around rooftop and utility scale solar has become increasingly important in balancing the system. Record low daytime demand driven by rooftop PV has forced coal to ramp up and down more frequently, a trend the Roadmap expects to continue.
The government also argues that running coal assets to technical life avoids the need for a rapid build out of new wind, solar and storage capacity, which would require simultaneous delivery of transmission, project approvals, construction labour and supply chain resources. According to the governement, those constraints are very real, and the Roadmap emphasises them repeatedly. In short, the government sees the risks of building too fast as greater than the risks of moving more slowly.
For households, the government’s central claim is that this slower, coal anchored approach will protect them from price spikes.
Does the Roadmap Make Economic Sense
This is where the picture becomes more complex in our view. A number of the Roadmap’s assumptions have been questioned by independent analysts.
Renew Economy provides excellent coverage on this and notes that the government has removed renewable energy targets altogether and effectively slowed the pace of the transition (3). The report highlights that Queensland coal units are not as reliable as the government suggests. Over the six months from April to September 2025, an average of 26 per cent of Queensland’s coal capacity was offline, with 61 unplanned breakdowns recorded in that period. The Gladstone Power Station alone suffered 33 unscheduled outages, and some units were available less than half the time.
Moreover, the cost comparison provided by independent analysts shows that coal has been generating electricity at more than 100 dollars per megawatt hour on average, compared with around 25 dollars for utility solar and 16 dollars for rooftop solar. This raises questions about whether coal truly represents the lowest cost pathway.
AEMO’s own modelling, referenced in the Renew Economy piece, also indicates that coal reliability is declining as maintenance costs rise and as competition from renewables increases. It warns that after 2040, Queensland will need to be prepared for periods with no coal generation at all. For investors, this marks a clear structural shift. Coal is not an expanding asset class. In our view it is an asset class being supported so that others have time to scale.
When evaluating the Roadmap’s economics, it is also worth noting that many of the future investments it relies on, such as medium duration storage and gas firming, are expected to be delivered by private capital. The state has provided some seed funding, but the scale required is far greater than the public allocation. Investors will make decisions based on long term marginal cost, revenue certainty and policy stability. The removal of renewable targets simplifies some aspects of planning, but it may introduce uncertainty for developers seeking long term offtake stability.
The Reality to Date and How This Roadmap May Shift the Trajectory
The reality is that Queensland’s energy system has already been shifting toward decentralised generation faster than many policymakers anticipated. Rooftop solar continues to expand rapidly, with more than 40 per cent of households now exporting power to the grid according to the government report. Home battery installations have also surged, second only to New South Wales, according to Renew Economy. Communities are effectively voting with their wallets for lower cost, low emissions energy.
At a grid scale level, wind and solar projects already in the pipeline are significant, and more than 14 billion dollars of committed or near committed projects are progressing through development. According to the roadmap, CopperString, a major transmission project connecting North and North West Queensland to the National Electricity Market, is another structural enabler that will accelerate renewable development once built.
The Roadmap may slow the pace of the large scale transition in the short term, but it does not reverse it. Nor can it. Economics, technology and consumer behaviour are all moving in one direction. The plan may buy time for the system to stabilise, but investors must recognise that the long term trajectory still points toward more renewables, more storage and more flexible demand side activity.
For investors, the message is twofold. Coal will remain part of Queensland’s mix for longer than previously planned, but in our view it does not change the ultimate decline of the sector,it just delays it. At the same time, Queensland remains one of the most resource rich and infrastructure ready jurisdictions for large scale renewables and storage investment. Policy signals may shift, but long term structural drivers remain firmly in place.
The Bottom Line
Queensland’s Energy Roadmap is a politically charged document that slows the pace of the transition in the name of affordability and reliability. Some of its assumptions are contested, particularly regarding coal reliability and cost competitiveness. Yet despite these tensions, the direction of travel remains the same. Rooftop solar continues to grow, storage continues to expand and the economics of renewables remain compelling. For investors, the Roadmap may change the sequencing, but it does not change the destination.
References
Queensland Government, Media Release, “New laws to deliver affordable, reliable and sustainable energy for Queensland”, https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/104166.
Queensland Government, Queensland Energy Roadmap 2025, https://www.treasury.qld.gov.au/policies-and-programs/energy/energy-roadmap/.
Vorrath S and Parkinson G, Renew Economy, “Queensland LNP dumps renewable targets, but can it teach coal plants to dance around solar”, https://reneweconomy.com.au/queensland-lnp-dumps-renewable-targets-but-can-they-teach-their-coal-plants-to-dance-around-solar/ .
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